House Republicans breathed a collective sigh of relief on Sunday and Monday as late-counted mail ballots led the AP and other media organizations to declare them the winners in Arizona's 1st and 6th CDs, California's 41st and 45th CDs and New York's 22nd CD—enough to cut off Democrats' path to 218 seats. With Republicans at 217, the question now is where the final number lands—likely between 220 and 222.

Republican Kevin Kiley (CA-03) and GOP Reps. David Valadao (CA-22), Mike Garcia (CA-27) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (CO-03) hold leads in their uncalled races, and their fate will determine how much breathing room GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has in the vote for speaker come January 3—and how much leverage Freedom Caucus hardliners like Reps. Matt Gaetz and Andy Biggs have as that vote approaches.

Republicans currently lead in total votes cast for House by 4.5 points at the moment, per our tracker—a swing of 7.6 points in their favor from Democrats' 3.1 point margin in 2020. Yet remarkably, they're on track for a paltry gain of just 1-2% of all House

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