On Tuesday, House Budget Chair Rep. John Yarmuth (KY-03) announced he won't run for reelection in 2022. Yarmuth is at the center of Democrats' grueling House negotiations over the infrastructure bill and becomes the tenth Democrat - and the first committee chair - to announce a retirement. Taken collectively, it's evidence Democrats are pessimistic about holding the majority beyond 2022.

More curious is Yarmuth's timing. A close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Yarmuth could have waited until the infrastructure bill's passage or for the end of the redistricting process to announce his retirement. But the timing of his exit isn't great for Democratic morale heading into a critical phase in DC, and might even weaken his party's hand in redistricting back home.

Yarmuth, first elected in the Democratic wave of 2006, has seen his Louisville seat become deeply blue as the rest of Kentucky has turned bright red. He was already facing a 2022 primary challenge from progressive state Rep. Attica Scott, who is running on a platform of ending qualified immunity for police officers and abolishing ICE, though

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