In 2006, House Democrats got to an even 30 seat gain by pulling off an upset in a December Texas runoff. This year, their hopes of gaining one more seat are riding on a Louisiana race that has been anything but cordial. The outcome will depend as much upon the impact of negative ads as it will upon each party’s ground game.

LA-04: Do Dems Have A Chance to Ice Another Cake?

The race between Democratic Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche and GOP physician John Fleming has all the feel of a special election. But the December 6th matchup is actually a general election pushed back on the schedule as a result of Hurricane Gustav earlier this year. It will be the third time each candidate has appeared on the ballot this year.

In November party runoffs, Carmouche dispatched retired Army Col. Willie Banks with 62 percent of the vote and 93,093 votes. On the Republican side, Fleming bested businessman Chris Gorman with 56 percent and 43,012 votes.

While Democrats have a point that Carmouche started out

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