Research Associate Matthew Klein contributed to this report.
Maine’s congressional lines have remained virtually the same for decades, with a solidly Democratic 1st District anchored by Portland and a highly competitive 2nd District covering the state’s more rural, blue-collar north. In 2021, the Pine Tree State’s apportionment commission, made up of an equal number of Democratic and Republican legislative appointees, arrived at a compromise plan — later signed into law by Democratic Gov. Janet Mills — that shifted the state capital of Augusta and liberal Hallowell into the 2nd District to rebalance both districts’ populations, benefiting Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (ME-02) by a fraction of a point.
As a Democrat representing a district Donald Trump carried by six points in 2020, Golden remains a top GOP target. But the tattooed Marine Corps veteran has built a powerful personal brand that appeals to the 2nd District’s large swath of independent voters and convincingly defeated former GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin 53%-47% in 2022. Republicans are betting that a combination of a fresh nominee and Trump driving peripherally engaged GOP voters to the
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.