Michigan has emerged as a Midwestern success story for Democrats: As recently as 2017, they held just five of the state's 14 House seats. Today, they hold a 7-6 advantage in the House delegation, not to mention both Senate seats, the governorship and both houses of the state legislature. The midterms were nearly disastrous for Republicans, as the abortion issue propelled Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to a double-digit reelection win with coattails.

At the congressional level, the biggest driver of Democrats' turnaround has been the state's newly-minted independent redistricting commission, adopted by ballot initiative in 2018. In 2021, the commission replaced a longstanding GOP gerrymander with a more compact map that gave Democrats an edge in the Grand Rapids-based 3rd District and featured three other highly competitive seats: the Lansing-based 7th District, Flint-based 8th District and Macomb County-based 10th District.

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's decision to run for Michigan's open Senate seat makes the 7th District the most competitive open seat in the country. Republicans will also keep Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee (MI-08) on their target list, but need a candidate

More from the Cook Political Report

CPR 2024 National Polling Average
Cook Politcal Logo