As widely expected, three-term Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin launched her bid for Michigan's open Senate seat on Monday, moving her highly competitive 7th CD in the Lansing area to the top of Republicans' takeover target board. In 2020, President Biden carried the 7th CD by a single point, 50%-49%. In 2022, Slotkin turned back GOP Army veteran and state Sen. Tom Barrett 52%-46% after outspending him by a massive $11.3 million to $2.7 million.

This was the site of the third-most expensive House race in the country in 2022: including outside groups, all parties involved spent $40.8 million in the Lansing and Detroit markets. Democrats will need to spend heavily again here if they want to reclaim the chamber in 2024.

Barrett quickly announced he'll run again in 2024, and he'll be tough to beat in a Republican primary. As a young Iraq veteran and proven vote-getter in the Lansing area, he was a top-tier GOP recruit last cycle. But Democrats hammered him for voting against a state tax break designed to lure a GM plant to the region, and

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