No other state demonstrates the growing partisan split between urban and rural America quite like Minnesota.

In the 2018 blue wave, Minnesota Democrats ousted GOP Reps. Jason Lewis and Erik Paulsen in the Twin Cities suburbs. On the same night, two Republican candidates running in rural Minnesota, Pete Stauber and Jim Hagedorn, flipped open Democratic seats. And in 2020, Republicans finalized the delegation’s geographic realignment by ousting its last remaining rural Democrat, 15-term Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson.

The only district that hasn’t perfectly cemented itself into a distinct partisan column is the state’s 2nd District, held by Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Since claiming this sprawling suburban district south of the Twin Cities by a six-point margin in 2018, Craig has fought hard to hold onto the seat. In 2022, the race was one of the most expensive in the country, costing candidates and outside groups more than $30 million. So far, however, Republicans have failed to recruit a serious challenger to Craig in 2024.

Meanwhile, Rep. Dean Phillips’ decision to publicly call for a primary challenge to President Joe

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