Missouri was once America’s most esteemed bellwether, voting for the winner in all but one presidential election between 1904 and 2004. But those days are long over: Republicans currently occupy every statewide office and hold a 6-2 partisan edge in the House. Although GOP Rep. Ann Wagner got a few scares in her suburban 2nd District toward the end of the last decade, legislative Republicans utilized redistricting in 2022 to shift the lean of her seat in their favor and keep it off the playing field (for now).

There remains the possibility that progressive Democratic Rep. Cori Bush could draw a credible primary challenge. Though she won a clear victory over a well-funded 2022 primary challenger, Bush has found herself under an increasingly harsh spotlight for paying the salary of her husband (a member of her security team) with campaign funds. Bush has no shortage of other vulnerabilities for a serious challenger to exploit, but so far no one has volunteered to give the race a go. Incumbents in the state’s remaining seven districts should all easily win renomination, assuming

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