This morning, three-term GOP Rep. Chris Collins was arrested and indicted on federal charges of insider trading for allegedly passing nonpublic information about an Australian biotech company's drug trials to his son in June 2017. Collins was already under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, but the indictment compounds his political problems in a district that should otherwise be safe GOP territory.

New York's 27th CD takes in Buffalo's most Republican suburbs and voted for President Trump 59 percent to 35 percent in 2016. Collins, a former Erie County executive and one of the wealthiest members of Congress, became Trump's first congressional endorser in early 2016 and took 67 percent in 2016. But in his last competitive race in 2012, he only defeated Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul 51 percent to 49 percent.

Democrats have a potentially credible nominee in attorney and Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, who had $81,000 on hand at the end of June. Grand Island (population 20,000) isn't located in the 27th CD and Democrats were forced to settle for McMurray after Hochul declined to run,

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