Some of the biggest issues in politics today — the crisis at the southern border, the threat to abortion rights and the polarizing MAGA movement — will get their first real electoral test on Feb. 13, in the special election to replace ousted New York Rep. George Santos.

On paper, the Long Island-based 3rd District has a significant Democratic lean. The district has a Cook PVI of D+2, and President Joe Biden carried it by eight points in 2020. In other words, it’s the kind of place where abortion rights and anti-MAGA messaging should have serious traction. National Democratic groups, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC, have already spent more than $3.5 million, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact, on ads tying Republican Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip to “MAGA Republicans” and attacking Pilip for running on “a party platform that wants to ban abortion.”

However, the district also sits in a media market awash with stories about how the crush of migrants is overwhelming New York City. Thus far, according to AdImpact, national Republican

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