With nearly 90 House Republicans planning to vote to expel GOP Rep. George Santos (NY-03) per Politico's latest whip count, it looks like a matter of hours until the most infamous House member of the social media age is finally ousted. And as the circus over Botox, OnlyFans and fake loans dies down, the focus on Long Island will shift to Democrats' very real opportunity to flip a GOP seat nine months ahead of the 2024 election.

A vote on the expulsion motion filed by Ethics Chair Michael Guest (MS-03) is expected Friday, and if all 213 Democrats vote to expel the indicted freshman, it would take just 77 Republican votes to hit the two-thirds threshold required for removal — a number well within reach.

Per New York law, Gov. Kathy Hochul would be required to proclaim an open seat within ten days of a vacancy and schedule a special election to be held between 70 and 80 days thereafter. That would mean a stand-alone special election in late February. President Biden carried this Nassau County seat 53%-45% in 2020

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