Most New York observers assumed Democrats' lost their best fall hope when GOP Rep. Dan Donovan (NY-11) soundly defeated convicted felon and former Rep. Michael Grimm in the June primary. After all, Donovan is Staten Island's former top prosecutor and voted against the GOP healthcare and tax bills (despite President Trump praising his "yes" vote when he endorsed him earlier this year).

But scrappy Democrat Max Rose, a 31-year-old former Army Captain who served in Afghanistan and is politically close to former Rep. Mike McMahon, raised $1.6 million in the third quarter and entered October with a $1.4 million to $277,000 cash on hand advantage over the incumbent. Rose is airing cable ads bashing Democratic Mayor Bill De Blasio, who is intensely disliked on Staten Island.

Private polling conducted by both parties shows Rose within single digits of Donovan, but barely. This will still be a heavy lift for the Democrats considering Rose grew up in Brooklyn and Trump carried the district 53 percent to 44 percent. Rose's path depends on an elaborate scenario in which hardcore Grimm supporters refuse

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