May 1, 2023 update: As expected, the new Republican-majority North Carolina Supreme Court reversed the previous court's finding that partisan gerrymandering violates the state's constitution, instead ruling that there isn't a manageable legal standard to adjudicate redistricting. This clears the way for the GOP-dominated state legislature to pass a new map for 2024 that eliminates up to four Democratic seats, transforming North Carolina's current 7-7 House breakdown into as lopsided as 11R-3D. As our article below details, that would nearly double Republicans' current cushion in the House. The legislature is expected to draft and pass a new congressional map by the summer.
This article was first published on February 10, 2023:
When we released our 2024 House ratings last Thursday, we wrote that Republicans have a huge insurance policy in their efforts to keep their new majority next fall: upcoming re-redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio. In 2022, both states' supreme courts struck down GOP legislatures' gerrymanders, leading to temporary maps that helped Democrats gain seats. But newly GOP-friendly courts could more than erase those gains.
Right on cue,
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