May 1, 2023 update: As expected, the new Republican-majority North Carolina Supreme Court reversed the previous court's finding that partisan gerrymandering violates the state's constitution, instead ruling that there isn't a manageable legal standard to adjudicate redistricting. This clears the way for the GOP-dominated state legislature to pass a new map for 2024 that eliminates up to four Democratic seats, transforming North Carolina's current 7-7 House breakdown into as lopsided as 11R-3D. As our article below details, that would nearly double Republicans' current cushion in the House. The legislature is expected to draft and pass a new congressional map by the summer.
This article was first published on February 10, 2023:
When we released our 2024 House ratings last Thursday, we wrote that Republicans have a huge insurance policy in their efforts to keep their new majority next fall: upcoming re-redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio. In 2022, both states' supreme courts struck down GOP legislatures' gerrymanders, leading to temporary maps that helped Democrats gain seats. But newly GOP-friendly courts could more than erase those gains.
Right on cue,
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.