Despite a tough Senate race loss, Ohio was a particular bright spot for House Democrats in 2022. Not only did 40-year Rep. Marcy Kaptur cruise to reelection in a Trump-won Toledo district, but Democrats defended Tim Ryan's open 13th CD in Akron and defeated a perennial target, GOP Rep. Steve Chabot, in the Cincinnati 1st CD. After years of stagnation, Democrats narrowed Republicans' edge in the delegation from 12R-4D to 10R-5D.
But just like in North Carolina, there's lots of uncertainty over the future of Ohio's congressional map—and the new conservative dominance over the state's Supreme Court could pave the way for a fresh GOP gerrymander that puts up to three Democratic seats in jeopardy in 2024.
It's been a long and twisted saga. In 2012, Ohio Republicans passed a brutal gerrymander that locked in a 12R-4D split—not a single seat changed hands in the five ensuing elections. But in May 2018, voters by 75%-25% passed a sweeping reform amendment, stipulating that future districts "must not unduly favor or disfavor a party or incumbents" and that at least 65 of
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