Democrats swept Pennsylvania's three most competitive House races in 2022, aided by a favorable redistricting map approved by the state Supreme Court and weak performances at the top of the ticket from Republicans Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano. But Democrats could have a tough time defending Reps. Susan Wild (PA-07) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08) if President Joe Biden's approval ratings remain mired around 40% and Donald Trump energizes more white non-college graduate voters to the polls in 2024.

Cartwright's Scranton district is particularly vulnerable given that he eked out a 51%-49% win last year against an opponent even Republicans admit had the wrong profile for the seat. But Wild’s Lehigh Valley seat is a perpetual battleground as well. Meanwhile, Democrats believe Freedom Caucus member and GOP Rep. Scott Perry (PA-10) is beatable in a Harrisburg seat that's been trending towards the middle. Plus, progressive freshman Rep. Summer Lee (PA-12) faces a primary challenge in her Pittsburgh-area seat.

PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks CountyLikely Republican. Democrats believe Fitzpatrick's vote for Speaker Mike Johnson finally offers proof he's not

More from the Cook Political Report

JTFP
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo