There are 31 House Democrats who represent districts President Trump carried in 2016, but four-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-08) is one of just a dozen from seats where Trump took a majority. And the former prominent Scranton attorney just voted for both articles of impeachment, a risk in a district that voted for Obama twice by double digits but for Trump 53 percent to 44 percent in 2016.

In 2018, Cartwright comfortably defeated Republican wealth management businessman John Chrin 55 percent to 45 percent. The incumbent capitalized on GOP healthcare and tax bills unpopular with working-class voters and cast Chrin (who spent $1.7 million of his own money) as an out-of-touch millionaire who had carpetbagged his way from the New Jersey suburbs. But 2020 could be a vastly different story.

First, although Cartwright downplayed his impeachment votes in a USA Today op-ed, calling himself "one of the loudest Democratic voices urging restraint" and calling it a decision to "refer" the matter to the Senate, the GOP outside groups American Action Network and America First Policies are on track to spend

More from the Cook Political Report