Bottom Lines are race rundowns designed to give subscribers a quick snapshot of what's happening in each district. The full report on Pennsylvania redistricting can be found here.
PA-03: Mike Kelly (R) - Northwest: Butler County, parts of Erie
Likely Republican. Under the new lines, this district becomes the 16th CD and reunites traditionally Democratic Erie County while dividing Kelly's base of Butler County. That reduces President Trump's share from 61 percent to 58 percent, and could entice a credible Democratic to run. Although former Democratic Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is now the Erie County executive and is unlikely to jump in, there is a decent Democratic bench here.
PA-04: Scott Perry (R) - South central: York, Harrisburg, Gettysburg Likely Republican. Perry's 4th CD is divided three ways under the new map, but he lives in the new 10th CD, which unites most of York County (his base) with the Democratic-leaning city of Harrisburg. The result is a potentially competitive district President Trump won 52 percent to 43 percent. Democratic State Auditor Eugene DePasquale is
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.