On balance, the Census's shift of House seats to the Sun Belt and West offers a small boost to Republicans. But all over the country, there are House members at risk of the redistricting knife. Every ten years, unlucky incumbents find themselves in much less viable districts as a result of states losing seats, or hostile legislatures or unpredictable commissions redrawing lines.
Redistricting won't kick off in earnest until the Census releases block-level data this fall. But below, we've created an interactive map of the 32 incumbents — including 20 Democrats and 12 Republicans — we believe are at moderate to high risk due to redistricting alone, as well as 74 incumbents we believe are at slight risk. To find out why, read on for our state-by-state snapshots.
These lists are subject to change, be sure to bookmark our 2022 redistricting dashboard to keep track of the latest developments.
Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Monday when Alabama averted losing a seat. They would have had to eliminate one
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