California Draft Would Shake Up Map, Adding to Both Parties' Exposure

November 12, 2021

While redistricting is about to make most states' maps less competitive, California's is poised to become even more so. Late Wednesday, its Citizens' Redistricting Commission voted 14-0 to advance a draft map for public consideration, with a December 27 deadline to finalize a new map. The commission chose not to use the current map as a starting point. As a result, the draft is a major shakeup that would imperil several members of both parties.

Currently, Democrats hold a commanding 42-11 lead in House seats, and they're certain to keep a big lead no matter what's drawn. But this draft would result in more swing seats, perhaps offering short-term upside for the GOP in 2022 and longer-term upside for Democrats.

Some of the biggest upheaval would be in the Central Valley. GOP Rep. Devin Nunes's (CA-22) suburban Fresno seat would move from Trump +5 to Biden +9, while Democratic Rep. Josh Harder (CA-10) would move from Biden +3 to Trump +10. That has Democrats prematurely ecstatic about the chances to oust their arch-villain Nunes. But Nunes has already indicated that

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