While redistricting is about to make most states' maps less competitive, California's is poised to become even more so. Late Wednesday, its Citizens' Redistricting Commission voted 14-0 to advance a draft map for public consideration, with a December 27 deadline to finalize a new map. The commission chose not to use the current map as a starting point. As a result, the draft is a major shakeup that would imperil several members of both parties.
Currently, Democrats hold a commanding 42-11 lead in House seats, and they're certain to keep a big lead no matter what's drawn. But this draft would result in more swing seats, perhaps offering short-term upside for the GOP in 2022 and longer-term upside for Democrats.
Some of the biggest upheaval would be in the Central Valley. GOP Rep. Devin Nunes's (CA-22) suburban Fresno seat would move from Trump +5 to Biden +9, while Democratic Rep. Josh Harder (CA-10) would move from Biden +3 to Trump +10. That has Democrats prematurely ecstatic about the chances to oust their arch-villain Nunes. But Nunes has already indicated that
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