Recent rulings by state courts in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania to strike GOP-drawn maps in favor of more neutral plans have propelled Democrats beyond initial expectations for the 2022 redistricting cycle. We now estimate Democrats are on track to net 4-5 more House seats than they otherwise would have won on current maps, up from two seats in our previous estimate.
However, redistricting could simply end up mitigating House Democrats’ losses rather than giving them a good chance to retain control. Republicans still have more than enough pickup opportunities to win the five seats they need for a majority by attacking Democrats on crime, inflation, immigration and linking them to a president whose approval remains mired in the low 40s.
How to use this chart: To help you keep track of what's unfolding, the scorecard below estimates how many seats each party might gain or lose in each state due to redistricting alone. For example, West Virginia is slated to lose a seat, and because all three current incumbents are Republicans, we’re “scoring” it as a GOP
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.