On Thursday, New York became the 30th state to adopt a new congressional map, and although several states are still subject to court challenge, the redistricting process is now about two-thirds over. And owing to acrobatic gerrymanders in Illinois and New York - as well as favorable court developments in Alabama, Ohio and Pennsylvania — Democrats have taken a small lead in our redistricting projections for the first time all cycle.
Democrats are now on track to net two to three seats from new maps alone — a significant shift. But a 42 percent President Biden approval rating could still equate to several dozen losses in November, and Republicans remain overall favorites for the House majority.
There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in unfinalized states. GOP leaders in Florida are debating how aggressive to be. Pennsylvania's Supreme Court will soon select a new map. Ohio's first GOP-drawn map was tossed by the state Supreme Court, and North Carolina's could be too. And, the Supreme Court must decide whether to greenlight additional Black opportunity districts in Alabama — and possibly
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