
On Thursday, New York became the 30th state to adopt a new congressional map, and although several states are still subject to court challenge, the redistricting process is now about two-thirds over. And owing to acrobatic gerrymanders in Illinois and New York - as well as favorable court developments in Alabama, Ohio and Pennsylvania — Democrats have taken a small lead in our redistricting projections for the first time all cycle.
Democrats are now on track to net two to three seats from new maps alone — a significant shift. But a 42 percent President Biden approval rating could still equate to several dozen losses in November, and Republicans remain overall favorites for the House majority.
There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in unfinalized states. GOP leaders in Florida are debating how aggressive to be. Pennsylvania's Supreme Court will soon select a new map. Ohio's first GOP-drawn map was tossed by the state Supreme Court, and North Carolina's could be too. And, the Supreme Court must decide whether to greenlight additional Black opportunity districts in Alabama — and possibly
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.