Hawaii is up next in our redistricting series. Throughout 2021, we'll delve into the states in detail, spotlighting a different state's redistricting outlook each week. Make sure to read our full redistricting outlook.

Current Delegation: 2D, 0R Projected 2022 Seats: 2 (No Change) Redistricting Control: Commission

Current Congressional Map

Map credit: Cook Political Report, drawn with Dave's Redistricting App

District-Level Population Analysis

Redistricting Outlook

Hawaii has a nine-member bipartisan redistricting commission, but they might have the simplest task in the country. For decades, Hawaii has had two districts: the 1st CD includes urban Honolulu and extends westward to Pearl Harbor. The 2nd CD includes the rest of Oahu and the Neighbor Islands. Although the 1st CD briefly elected a Republican in a 2010 fluke, both seats are now in firm Democratic control.

Recent Census estimates suggest the commission will need to shift about 12,000 residents from the 1st CD to the 2nd CD. But in Hawaii, timing and ambition have a way of overstepping geographic boundaries anyway. Rep. Ed Case (HI-01) previously held the 2nd CD for a

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