New Michigan Map Jolts Incumbents, With Upside for Both Parties

December 30, 2021

On Tuesday, eight of Michigan's 13 citizen commissioners (two Democrats, two Republicans and four unaffiliated members) joined forces to vote a draft map labeled "Chestnut" into law. And unlike most other states, Michigan is in for a total competitive makeover. On the surface, Democrats are hailing the map as a victory because the 13 new districts would have split 7-6 for Joe Biden in 2020, a reversal from the current GOP-drawn map that split 8-6 for Donald Trump last year. But the true story is more complicated: Biden won new seats anchored by Lansing and Flint by exceedingly narrow margins, and the map could fluctuate as wildly as 9R-4D in a great Republican year to 8D-5R in a stellar cycle for Democrats. Already, the map has set off two potential incumbent vs. incumbent clashes: Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens and Andy Levin are set to face off in the new Oakland County 11th CD, as could GOP Reps. Fred Upton and Bill Huizenga in the new West Michigan 4th CD. Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin, who is running for the new Lansing-based

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