On March 31, the left-leaning Twittersphere entered a collective panic when New York Supreme Court judge Patrick McAllister struck down New York Democrats' congressional and legislative maps, ruling they were "enacted with political bias" and thus violated the state's new constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering. But for now, the most likely outcome is that Democrats' prized congressional gerrymander stands, at least for 2022.

McAllister's ruling was just the opening salvo of an Empire State legal fight with big national ramifications for the House. After all, New York Democrats' ambitious 22D-4R design, if successful, would cut the number of Republicans in half versus the current 19D-8R delegation.

In fact, Democrats' aggressive New York map alone accounts for their entire projected national gain from redistricting. If state courts were to throw it out in favor of a "neutral" plan, it could cost them three to four seats. That would swing the national pendulum slightly in the GOP's favor, given the likelihood Florida and Ohio will use GOP-gerrymandered maps this fall - a whiplash-inducing reversal of Democrats' anticipated gains two months ago.


More from the Cook Political Report