Ohio is up next in our redistricting series. Throughout 2021, we'll delve into the states in detail, spotlighting a different state's redistricting outlook each week. Make sure to read our full redistricting outlook.
Current Delegation: 12R, 4D
Projected 2022 Seats: 15 (-1)
Redistricting Control: Commission/Republican
Map credit: Cook Political Report, drawn with Dave's Redistricting App
Ohio has proven the most effective GOP gerrymander of the last decade. In 2011, Republicans seized a 12-4 advantage by stuffing Democrats into four bizarrely shaped districts, including one slithering from Cleveland to Toledo nicknamed the "Snake on the Lake." While GOP maps in other states crumbled amid the "blue wave" of 2018, not a single Ohio seat has changed hands since 2012.
But today, the future of Ohio's map is in limbo: in May 2018, voters overwhelmingly passed a redistricting reform ballot initiative creating a new, untested process designed to incentivize bipartisanship over "winning ugly."
Democrats hope the new reform's rules will lead to a windfall of new winnable seats: maps "must not
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.