Part of the reason Democrats are slightly outpacing map expectations is that Republicans have focused more on shoring up their own incumbents than dismantling Democratic seats. That looks likely to continue in Kentucky and Missouri, where GOP legislative leaders have proposed status quo maps rather than go on the attack. But in New Hampshire, the GOP legislature is aggressively targeting Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01).
KentuckyAfter a months-long standoff in which Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear refused to call the GOP-dominated legislature into Frankfort for a special redistricting session, the regular session got underway this week. And to Democrats' relief, Republicans unveiled a status quo, 5R-1D congressional map that preserves the heavily blue Louisville 3rd CD, where Rep. John Yarmuth is retiring. Instead, Republicans focused on shoring up Rep. Andy Barr (KY-06).
Several hardcore GOP strategists had pushed for chopping up Yarmuth's 3rd CD to achieve a 6R-0D sweep. But Sen. Mitch McConnell reportedly advocated for keeping Louisville intact, and neighboring Republicans including GOP Rep. Brett Guthrie (KY-02) objected to taking on huge swaths of urban Louisville. Another possible factor:
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.