Part of the reason Democrats are slightly outpacing map expectations is that Republicans have focused more on shoring up their own incumbents than dismantling Democratic seats. That looks likely to continue in Kentucky and Missouri, where GOP legislative leaders have proposed status quo maps rather than go on the attack. But in New Hampshire, the GOP legislature is aggressively targeting Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01).

Kentucky

After a months-long standoff in which Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear refused to call the GOP-dominated legislature into Frankfort for a special redistricting session, the regular session got underway this week. And to Democrats' relief, Republicans unveiled a status quo, 5R-1D congressional map that preserves the heavily blue Louisville 3rd CD, where Rep. John Yarmuth is retiring. Instead, Republicans focused on shoring up Rep. Andy Barr (KY-06).

Several hardcore GOP strategists had pushed for chopping up Yarmuth's 3rd CD to achieve a 6R-0D sweep. But Sen. Mitch McConnell reportedly advocated for keeping Louisville intact, and neighboring Republicans including GOP Rep. Brett Guthrie (KY-02) objected to taking on huge swaths of urban Louisville. Another possible factor:

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