Now that 38 of the 44 states with more than one House seat have adopted new lines, our 2022 House ratings are coming into view. At the moment, there are 19 Democratic-held seats in Toss Up or worse, compared to 11 GOP-held seats in Toss Up or worse. A possible state court-ordered map in Ohio could soon put a few more GOP seats at risk. Meanwhile, Florida, New Hampshire and Wisconsin could add to Democrats' tally of vulnerable seats.
Of the six states remaining, two — Florida and Ohio — account for 43 of the 67 seats left to draw. And, the extent to which both states' rules and judiciaries constrain Republican mapmakers' proposals will determine the final redistricting outcome.
As we've written for months, the new House map is likely to be less skewed in the GOP's favor than the current one. Of the 368 new districts that have been adopted, President Biden carried 209 of them in 2020, up eight from 201 of the 368 current districts in the same 36 states. That pro-Democratic shift could increase if
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