On Wednesday, Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission (two Democrats, two Republicans and a tie-breaking independent) unanimously approved a new congressional map featuring four GOP seats, three Democratic seats and two highly competitive seats. In the short term, it could flip the delegation from 5D-4R to as wide as 6R-3D in 2022. But, Democrats have longer-term upside in Phoenix and Tucson seats trending their way.

The commission's uneasy consensus is a remarkable achievement in itself, considering last decade's process descended into a debacle after the independent chair sided 3-2 with Democrats and GOP legislators impeached her. This time, neither side got everything it wanted, though Democrats are still a bit irked at chair Erika Neuberg and Republicans see the final product as unraveling the current plan they view as a Democratic gerrymander.

Like the old map, the new map would have split 5-4 for Joe Biden in 2020. But two of those Biden seats were near-ties: the new Scottsdale/North Phoenix 1st CD went for Biden by a point, and the new suburban Tucson 6th CD voted for him by just a tenth

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