On Monday, the Supreme Court denied Republican appeals to block court-ordered congressional maps in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The decision likely clears the way for Ohio's Supreme Court to invalidate a GOP gerrymander in the coming days as well, ensuring Democrats will come out a few seats ahead in the 2022 redistricting cycle — a rare bright spot or mitigating factor in an otherwise bleak year for the president's party.
However, the potential for the Supreme Court to revisit the matter in the course of a full hearing — and for Republicans to reshape state courts through upcoming judicial elections — means Democrats' hard-won gains could be partially washed away before 2024.
In the immediate term, this is a huge victory for Democrats. Democrats have thwarted GOP gerrymanders in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania because they won backstops in advance via key gubernatorial and judicial races in 2015, 2018 and 2020. Thanks to vetoes and lawsuits, the trio will likely elect eight to ten more Democrats to Congress this fall than they otherwise would have, erasing the GOP skew
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