It’s become a familiar game of keepaway: Every ten years, Hispanic, Black and Asian residents account for nearly all of Texas’ net population growth, giving rise to Democratic hopes they can win more power. But every 10 years, Texas Republicans quash those aspirations by passing fresh gerrymanders that remove the bluest and most diverse suburbs from GOP-held seats and ensure their dominance for another decade. Republicans now hold a 25R-13D edge in the delegation, and only one of Texas’ 38 seats looks competitive in 2024.
Texas gained two seats following the 2020 Census, and in 2021 Republicans swiftly adopted a map that added two seats to their column in a creative way: To shore up nearby GOP seats, they drew a new 37th District in Austin to pack Democrats into an overwhelmingly blue “vote sink” and added a safely GOP 38th District in the Houston suburbs. Then, they flipped the Hispanic majority 15th District in South Texas from Biden +2 to Trump +3, paving the way for Republican Monica De La Cruz to capture a district where she had fallen
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.