For decades, Democrats have held an iron grip on three seats in Texas's Rio Grande Valley. But in 2022, it's emerging as a central flashpoint in the battle for the House. Thanks to new maps, Republicans are already favorites to pick up the open 15th CD in the McAllen area. And now that the brawl between Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) and progressive Jessica Cisneros is headed to overtime, Republicans' odds there are better than ever.

In 2020, Donald Trump made enormous strides in the traditionally blue region, narrowing his 2016 deficits in all three of the 15th, 28th and 34th CDs by between 15 and 18 points. But the border crisis in the Biden era has only exacerbated Democrats' woes: a September 2021 Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll found President Biden's job approval at just 35 percent with Texas Hispanics, with 54 percent disapproving.

Now, Republicans are poised to nominate a full slate of Latinas to contest all three seats: insurance agent Monica De La Cruz (TX-15), former Sen. Ted Cruz aide Cassy Garcia (pending a TX-28 runoff) and respiratory care

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