On Sunday, the New York Times reported that GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant will become the seventh Republican in the past month — and the fourth Texas Republican in two weeks — to announce his retirement in 2020. Marchant, first elected in 2004, scraped past little-known Democratic accountant Jan McDowell by just three points in 2018 and was among the few GOP members already in our Toss Up column.

The suburban Dallas/Ft. Worth 24th CD is one of the nation's most rapidly diversifying melting pots. Drawn in 2011 as a safe GOP seat based in Irving and Grapevine, the 24th CD was 53 percent white, 23 percent Hispanic, 11 percent Asian and 10 percent African-American at the outset of the decade. In 2017, it was 46 percent white, 24 percent Hispanic, 14 percent Asian and 12 percent African-American.

For Marchant, a conservative former Carrollton mayor who hadn't had to run a competitive campaign in 15 years, the writing was on the wall. In 2012, the 24th CD voted for Mitt Romney 60 percent to 38 percent. But in 2016,

More from the Cook Political Report

First Person
Cook Politcal Logo