By most metrics, the special election to succeed GOP Rep. Chris Stewart, who resigned in September, should be a slam dunk for Republicans. After all, Utah's 2nd District voted for Donald Trump 56%-39% in 2020 and Stewart 60%-34% in 2022. But Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe has run a spirited campaign against GOP nominee Celeste Maloy, an attorney and former Stewart staffer, in what is likely to be a low-turnout Thanksgiving week election — creating a bit more drama than Rhode Island's 1st District earlier this month.

The 2nd District, which Cook Political Report contributor Leah Askarinam profiled in July, stretches from the trendy, liberal Sugar House neighborhood of Salt Lake City to deeply conservative, Mormon St. George in the state's southwest corner. Although it's heavily Republican, it's actually the lightest-red seat in the state after Republicans divvied up Salt Lake County in 2021 to dilute Democratic votes. And, making this more interesting, Democrats have a recent track record of overperforming in special elections nationally.

Riebe, a former New Yorker who was elected to the Utah State Board of Education

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