Vice President George Bush continues to hold a 2-1 lead in the polls over Sen. Robert Dole (R-Kan.), while Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y,) and former Delaware Gov. Pete du Pont battle it out for third place. Rev. Pat Robertson and former Secretary of State Alexander Haig continue to languish at the back of the pack. Although Dole's Iowa campaign chairman was called on the carpet for it, his statement that it's all over for Dole if he loses the February 8 caucus seems to ring true. A Dole victory in New Hampshire, either real or over-expectation, is predicated on an Iowa win and a strong Super Tuesday performance depends upon a real boost in either of the two other key states. Other pre-Super Tuesday contests appear unlikely to get enough attention to detract from Iowa and New Hampshire or diminish their importance. Kemp and du Pont continue to eat into each other's potential support and the emergence of one appears to depend on the collapse of the other. Kemp still has strong potential in New Hampshire, however.

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