With just over 14 months left in the 2004 campaign, there are both high probabilities and huge uncertainties surrounding this election. It is highly probable that Republicans will retain control of both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives—a pretty remarkable statement given the extremely narrow margins dividing the two parties in both bodies. But in the presidential race, there are huge uncertainties because different economic, political and foreign policy assumptions render vastly different electoral consequences.

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