The Cook Political Report: May 31, 1996

There have been few significant changes in the Presidential campaign since our May 3 issue. President Clinton's lead in two-way trial heats against Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole has ranged from as low as 12 points to as high as 22 points. Averaging together the last eight national surveys, the President holds an 18-point lead over Dole in two-way trial heats. In the face of few major developments on the House front over the last month, Democrats' advantage in the generic Congressional ballot test is not only holding up, but may have widened. Individual polls taken since the beginning of May have ranged from a single-point Republican edge to a Democratic lead of 11 points. An average of the eight polls taken since May 1 put Democrats up by 5.25 percent, compared to a five-poll average of 3.8 points in April. The most major developments have taken place in Senate races, where Democrats have gotten some breaks lately, particularly in Arkansas, where the GOP lost their nominee, Mike Huckabee, who had been favored to capture the seat for his party