The Cook Political Report: October 4, 2002

With just over four weeks to go before the election, the wild political gyrations that have dominated the last 15 months have given way to an equilibrium, with serious and growing concerns about the economy and the direction in which the country is going largely offset by a renewed focus on foreign policy and the expected war with Iraq. For now, this political tug-of-war is playing to a draw, although the forces on each side are still strong enough to dominate the other before the election is over. Democrats worry that the focus will remain on Iraq through Election Day, negating the economic concerns that work to their benefit. At the same time, some Republican strategists worry that once Congress passes a resolution backing President Bush on Iraq and until hostilities begin, that the focus will shift back once again to the economy and Democrats will regain the advantage. It's very clear from the polling data this year that when Americans are thinking about the economy, President Bush and Republicans suffer, and when the spotlight shifts elsewhere, particularly to foreign