Running for elected office is always a gamble; whether you are a longtime incumbent or a first-time challenger, there’s no guarantee of success. But in 2024, the Republican and Democratic frontrunners for president are taking bigger, more audacious bets than we’ve seen in recent memory. The most obvious bet, made by both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, is that they will face the one candidate they can beat this fall. Any other Republican would be favored over Biden at this point, while Trump would most likely lose to a Democratic nominee not named Biden.

But both are also gambling that strategies that worked in the past will be successful at a time of deep voter discontent with the nominees themselves and with the current political climate.


On Friday, Biden will travel to Valley Forge, Pa., where he will mark the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and, according to his campaign, focus his remarks on the premise that preservation of democracy is on the line in 2024.

This is a familiar theme for

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