Even though Republicans are still technically in the middle of a primary battle for the presidential nomination, it’s Democrats who are acting more disjointed and unsteady about their prospective nominee this fall. The latest example: One of President Joe Biden’s strongest allies in the progressive media space, the New York Times’ Ezra Klein, recently called for Biden to step down and allow the party to nominate a stronger candidate.

One of the most oft-cited examples of Biden’s weakness is his dismal job approval rating. Job approval ratings, unlike other political data points, have historically been an accurate predictor of electoral performance.

And, by that measure, Biden’s reelection prospects look dim. According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation, Biden’s job approval rating is 39%, with 56% disapproving of the job he’s doing as president. The only other president this deeply underwater with voters at this point in their first term was Gerald Ford. Or, another way to look at it is that Biden’s -17 job rating means he is almost twice as unpopular as Donald Trump was at this point (-9) in 2020.

Given

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