Rather than looking at the question of whether Republicans will seize control of the Senate, like ordering at a fast food restaurant the better question is whether their majority will be small, medium, or large.

The West Virginia seat now held by retiring Democrat Joe Manchin is pretty much a gimme putt for Republicans. That makes a 50-50 Senate the worst case scenario for the GOP. Should Republicans only pick up that one West Virginia seat, the Senate majority in the next Congress would go to the party winning this year’s presidential election as the incoming vice president would be sitting in the Senate’s presiding chair to break tie votes.

It would be foolhardy to say that President Biden has no chance to be re-elected, but it would be totally unrealistic to deny that the path for his re-election is both narrow and decidedly uphill. In 2020, Biden swept all three of the Frost Best swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) that effectively determined the 2016 election, but also three across the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada). He now

More from the Cook Political Report

Trump Biden
Free
2024 Swing State Project
AW
JT
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo