Very few things in American electoral politics are more certain than Donald Trump winning next year’s Republican presidential nomination. Sure, some adverse medical event could intervene, but it is unlikely that any legal or political events will steer the party in another direction before the Super Tuesday primaries March 5. After that date, 60 percent of Republican delegates will have been selected.

Given the former president’s many weaknesses, that should be cause for Democrats to rejoice. But Trump, who has more baggage than a luggage store, is in a considerably better position to capture 270 electoral votes than President Biden. Sure, a year is a long time, but in this period of highly polarized—even calcified—partisan politics, poll numbers on this race have been remarkably consistent.

Last week, this column looked at two bundles of swing-state polling, one conducted by Siena College for The New York Times, the other by Morning Consult for Bloomberg News. Each depicted a quite grim situation for Biden.

While Biden is competitive in the national popular vote, the swing-state polling tells a different story. Since the

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