By most measures, Tuesday’s elections went great for Democrats: Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio passed a constitutional right to abortion. Democrats captured both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly, won a key Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, and came within five points of defeating GOP Gov. Tate Reeves in Mississippi.

It’s also true that when it comes to gubernatorial races, all politics is local. As Jessica Taylor notes, Beshear’s win in Kentucky was a testament to his strong brand and high approval ratings that Republican Daniel Cameron was unable to dent, even as he tried to tie the governor to an unpopular President Biden. Though Reeves was not as popular, he was able to rely on the deeply red lean of the state to win reelection against a strong and well-funded foe.

But David Wasserman writes that Tuesday’s raw numbers also underscore the perils of extrapolating off-off-year election results and narratives to draw inferences about the next presidential election. If there was a common thread across Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia, it was that turnout was down from

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