In politics, it is interesting to watch how behavioral patterns emerge, even after all of the personnel have largely turned over. One enduring trait is the tendency of the National Republican Congressional Committee and House Republican leaders to give exaggerated predictions of how they will do in upcoming elections.
Like the broken clock that is right twice a day, 1984 and 1994 were the notable exceptions. Former NRCC Chairman Guy Vander Jagt of Michigan predicted "eight plus four for [19]84" and Republicans gained 14 seats, while a once-in-a-generation tsunami swept the GOP into control in 1994. In every other general election in memory, House Republicans have predicted more than any other national party committee. We are not talking rosy predictions, we are talking scarlet.
Humans tend to be optimistic, and people in politics even more than most. Other committees temper their optimism by playing the expectations game, in effect splitting the difference between building momentum and funding without running the risk of being seen as underperforming on Election Day. The NRCC and GOP House leaders have never worried about expectations,
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.