Beltway Republicans are panicking over Donald Trump’s landslide in Nevada. But, if they thought the Wednesday after Nevada was bad, just wait for the Wednesday after Super Tuesday. Tuesday’s contests include the so-called SEC primary with six states of the former Confederacy and a seventh, Oklahoma, which votes like a southern state. Not long ago, many thought the foul-mouthed, irreligious, thrice-married purveyor of New York values would struggle in the genteel, mannerly and deeply religious South. Trump’s 10-point victory in South Carolina put that notion to rest. But why? Hadn’t Ted Cruz dominated among evangelicals in Iowa, winning by 12 points over Trump? The two states appear religiously similar, with evangelicals making up 62% of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa and 67% of primary voters in South Carolina. Yet, Trump bested Cruz among evangelical South Carolinians by 8 points, a remarkable 20-point shift from Iowa. The reason Trump won South Carolina and is likely to romp to victory in the southern Super Tuesday states is the persistent importance of race in Southern politics. Conservative racial attitudes are central to why the
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