On page A-13 of last Thursday's Washington Post, the headlines of the jumps of two front-page stories said it all. One headline read, "For Jobs Well Done, Bonuses and BMWs." The other, "Record 1998 Economic Growth Ends Abruptly." The former was subtitled, "Boom Years Pay Off in Wages, Benefits and Appreciation," the latter, "Export Decline Blamed on Asian Turmoil."
The second story was prompted by a Commerce Department report released Wednesday indicating that business inventories unexpectedly fell, suggesting a rather dramatic slowdown in the economy. Other economic reports late last week portrayed a potentially ominous situation: The Commerce Department announced that industrial production fell 0.6 percent, falling even after automobile and truck production, hurt by the General Motors strike, is factored out. Another Commerce Department report showed the nation's trade deficit hit a record level for the fourth consecutive month.
Taken together, economists are now conceding the economy may have declined during the second quarter, amazing given its 5.4 percent real gross domestic product growth rate during the first quarter. The traditional definition of a recession is two successive quarters
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