Before the beginning of our current “Trump era” of American politics, there was no precedent for our frequent use of the word “unprecedented.” In fact, the term comes up so much in news and commentary that it has pretty much become a cliché. Now, there are few things related to Trump that can’t be called unprecedented.

With that in mind, one cannot know precisely what impact former President Trump’s conviction in a Manhattan court on Thursday will have on this election; indeed, there are no historical patterns to point to for guidance. Those who predict that it will irreparably dent his electability and those who say it will have no effect are probably both engaging in wishful thinking.

For those in neither camp, or for those just trying to look at the question as clinically as possible, here are some factors that make this contest an exceedingly "mature race” not easily shifted in either direction.

First, general elections today are driven much more by partisanship than anything else. In 2020, the National Election Pool exit poll showed exactly 94 percent

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