It’s been a long election cycle, but it’s finally time to put our credibility on the line: Here are our final handicapping calls for state legislatures, state attorney general races, and secretary of state races in 2020.
We’re not making any changes to our secretary of state handicapping, but we’re making a few shifts to the ratings for legislative chambers and one further change in a state AG race.
STATE LEGISLATURESOur most significant change for a legislative chamber is in Wisconsin. For this entire cycle, we’ve felt that the legislative map drawn by the Republicans in 2010 was favorable enough to the GOP to survive even a high Democratic tide like the one that could occur in 2020. That’s why we’ve kept the chambers at Likely Republican all cycle, even as other presidential swing-state chambers with GOP-drawn maps – including Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas – have shifted into more competitive categories.
In recent days, however, we detect increasing ferment in Wisconsin as President Donald Trump’s numbers fall, especially in the suburbs. While the GOP remains well-positioned
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