With just under six months until Election Day, the two presidential campaigns have publicly differing views about just how many states are really in play.

If you listen to the Biden team, the battle for the Electoral College runs through the six states Biden (narrowly) won in 2020, plus North Carolina, which Trump won by less than two points last cycle, and perhaps even Florida, which Trump won by three points in 2020 but where a new six-week abortion ban has energized Democrats. The Trump team believes — and privately some Democrats agree — that Biden is unlikely to win back the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, and instead the race for the White House runs through the “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Moreover, a new Trump campaign memo argues that two traditionally blue states — Minnesota and Virginia — are now in play.

So just how big (or small) is the Electoral College playing field?

Polling does suggest that Trump is slightly stronger in the Sun Belt than the Rust Belt.

According to

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