By just about any rational and objective standard, the political challenges facing former President Trump would normally add up to a dumpster fire. And yet Trump, the 45th and quite possibly the 47th president, has clear leads over his successor, President Biden, in polling averages in four of the six swing states that Biden carried in 2020—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada. His leads in the other two, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are much narrower, about a single percentage point. To reach the barest possible winning margin of 270 Electoral College votes, Biden would have to carry both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Michigan, where Trump leads by a wider margin of about 3 or 4 points. He must also carry either Maine's 2nd District or Nebraska’s 2nd District, which doesn’t seem like a sure thing this year, either.

It is always interesting to watch journalists and other political observers become obsessed with shiny objects, while largely ignoring larger and more fundamental forces. Democrats are stressing out over the potential impact of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s independent bid or other third-party

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