Human behavior always will have some degree of uncertainty. Nowhere is that more clear than with elections. But the 2024 elections seem to have a usual degree of uncertainty. In the presidential race, current dynamics raise the distinct possibility of another inversion, with one major-party nominee winning the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College. While such inversions only happened three times in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, it has happened in two of the last six elections, in 2000 and in 2016. In 2020, we only missed a third inversion by 126,000 votes spread out over four states.
It’s certainly unusual to have large majorities of Americans this unhappy with their choices. As this column noted last week, a substantial segment of the electorate doesn't like former President Trump’s personality, his behavior, or his ethics. But with the notable exception of the abortion issue, their biggest objections to him are more stylistic and personal than substantive. In almost a mirror opposite situation, another substantial part of the electorate doesn't mind President Biden personally, but has fundamental
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